Risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time from prior infection: a cohort study, Reggio Emilia province, Italy, February 2020 to February 2022.

BackgroundUnderstanding the epidemiology of reinfections is crucial for SARS-CoV-2 control over a long period.AimTo evaluate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by vaccination status, predominant variant and time after first infection.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study including all residents in the Reggio Emilia province on 31 December 2019, followed up until 28 February 2022 for SARS-CoV-2 first infection and reinfection after 90 days. Cox models were used to compare risk of first infection vs reinfection, adjusting for age, sex, vaccine doses and comorbidities.ResultsThe cohort included 538,516 residents, 121,154 with first SARS-CoV-2 infections and 3,739 reinfections, most in the Omicron BA.1 period. In the pre-Omicron period, three doses of vaccine reduced risk of reinfection by 89% (95% CI: 87-90), prior infection reduced risk by 90% (95% CI: 88-91), while two doses and infection reduced risk by 98% (95% CI: 96-99). In the Omicron BA.1 period, protection estimates were 53% (95% CI: 52-55), 9% (95% CI: 4-14) and 76% (95% CI: 74-77). Before Omicron, protection from reinfection remained above 80% for up to 15 months; with Omicron BA.1, protection decreased from 71% (95% CI: 65-76) at 5 months to 21% (95% CI: 10-30) at 22 months from the first infection. Omicron BA.1 reinfections showed 48% (95% CI: 10-57) lower risk of severe disease than first infections.ConclusionsNatural immunity acquired with previous variants showed low protection against Omicron BA.1. Combined vaccination and natural immunity seems to be more protective against reinfection than either alone. Vaccination of people with prior infection reduced the risk of severe disease.

Active screening of COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis with serum beta-glucan and endotracheal aspirates galactomannan and fungal culture.

BACKGROUND: Since February 2021 active screening of COVID-19-associated pulmonary aspergillosis (CAPA) has been implemented in our institution. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate CAPA incidence in our centre and evaluate performance of our screening protocol. METHODS: We screened once per week, collecting endotracheal aspirates for fungal culture and galactomannan (GM) and serum for 1,3-ß-D-glucan (BG). In case of positivity (GM more than 4.5, platelia assay, and/or BG >7 pg/ml, wako and/or positive fungal culture), second-level investigations were performed to pursue CAPA diagnosis according to ECMM/ISHAM criteria: bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) fungal culture and GM, chest computed tomography (CT), serum GM. RESULTS: A total of 102 patients were screened (median age 64 years, range 39-79; 28 (27.4%) females). Twenty-two patients were diagnosed with CAPA (21%). 12 patients were positive for serum BG, 17 patients were positive for endotracheal aspirates GM and 27 patients were positive for endotracheal aspirates fungal culture. Thirty-two BALs were performed, and 26 patients underwent CT chest. Following the second level investigations 61% of the patients with positive screening tests were diagnosed with CAPA. Serum BG above 20 pg/ml or positive serum GM were always associated with typical CT chest signs of aspergillosis. Compared with 1 single positive test, having 2 positive screening test was significantly more associated with CAPA diagnosis (p = .0004). CONCLUSIONS: Active CAPA screening with serum 1,3-ß-D-glucan and endotracheal aspirates galactomannan and fungal cultures and consequent second level investigations led to high number of CAPA diagnosis. Combining more positive fungal biomarkers was more predictive of CAPA diagnosis.

High-dose glucocorticoids pulse-therapy for beta-coronaviridae pneumonia: a systematic literature review and case-series of Coronavirus disease-2019.

OBJECTIVES: The results of the RECOVERY trial identified dexamethasone as the first pharmacological therapy that reduces mortality in patients with COVID-19. The aim of this paper is to conduct a systematic literature review on safety and efficacy of pulse glucocorticoid therapy for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS)-CoronaVirus (CoV), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)-CoV or SARS-CoV-2 infections and describe a case-series of COVID-19 patients treated with off-label pulse doses of methylprednisolone. METHODS: We performed a systematic literature review on safety and efficacy of pulse therapy for betacoronaviridae infections as described in the protocol registered on PROSPERO (CRD42020190183). All consecutive patients admitted to Arcispedale Santa Maria Nuova di Reggio Emilia or Guastalla Hospital with COVID-19 between March 1st and April 30th, 2020 and treated with methylprednisolone 1 gram/day for at least three days were included in the case series. A retrospective review of available computed tomography (CT) scan and chest x-ray was performed independently by two radiologists blinded to clinical data, and discordances were resolved by consensus. RESULTS: Twenty papers were included for SARS, but only two were comparative and were included in the primary endpoint analysis. Likewise, eleven papers were included for COVID-19, four of which were comparative and were considered for the primary outcome analysis. Included studies for both SARS and COVID-19 are mostly retrospective and highly heterogeneous, with lethality ranging from 0% to 100% and ICU admission rate ranging from 9% to 100%. Fourteen patients were included in our case series, 7 males and 7 females. CONCLUSIONS: No randomised controlled trial is available yet for corticosteroids pulse-therapy defined as at least ≥500mg/day methylprednisolone in patients with emerging coronavirus pneumonia. Lethality among our cohort is high (4/14), but this finding should be interpreted with caution due to the fact that in our setting pulse-steroids were used in patients not eligible for other treatments because of comorbidities or as rescue therapy. The incidence of steroid-related adverse events seems low in our cohort. The quality of the evidence on glucocorticoid pulse-therapy in SARS, MERS and COVID-19 is poor. Randomised controlled trials are greatly needed.

Modifications of Chest CT Body Composition Parameters at Three and Six Months after Severe COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

We aimed to describe body composition changes up to 6-7 months after severe COVID-19 and to evaluate their association with COVID-19 inflammatory burden, described by the integral of the C-reactive protein (CRP) curve. The pectoral muscle area (PMA) and density (PMD), liver-to-spleen (L/S) ratio, and total, visceral, and intermuscular adipose tissue areas (TAT, VAT, and IMAT) were measured at baseline (T0), 2-3 months (T1), and 6-7 months (T2) follow-up CT scans of severe COVID-19 pneumonia survivors. Among the 208 included patients (mean age 65.6 ± 11 years, 31.3% females), decreases in PMA [mean (95%CI) -1.11 (-1.72; -0.51) cm2] and in body fat areas were observed [-3.13 (-10.79; +4.52) cm2 for TAT], larger from T0 to T1 than from T1 to T2. PMD increased only from T1 to T2 [+3.07 (+2.08; +4.06) HU]. Mean decreases were more evident for VAT [-3.55 (-4.94; -2.17) cm2] and steatosis [L/S ratio increase +0.17 (+0.13; +0.20)] than for TAT. In multivariable models adjusted by age, sex, and baseline TAT, increasing the CRP interval was associated with greater PMA reductions, smaller PMD increases, and greater VAT and steatosis decreases, but it was not associated with TAT decreases. In conclusion, muscle loss and fat loss (more apparent in visceral compartments) continue until 6-7 months after COVID-19. The inflammatory burden is associated with skeletal muscle loss and visceral/liver fat loss.

Imaging-based indices combining disease severity and time from disease onset to predict COVID-19 mortality: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 prognostic factors include age, sex, comorbidities, laboratory and imaging findings, and time from symptom onset to seeking care. PURPOSE: The study aim was to evaluate indices combining disease severity measures and time from disease onset to predict mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to the emergency department (ED). MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive COVID-19 patients who underwent both computed tomography (CT) and chest X-ray (CXR) at ED presentation between 27/02/2020 and 13/03/2020 were included. CT visual score of disease extension and CXR Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (RALE) score were collected. The CT- and CXR-based scores, C-reactive protein (CRP), and oxygen saturation levels (sO2) were separately combined with time from symptom onset to ED presentation to obtain severity/time indices. Multivariable regression age- and sex-adjusted models without and with severity/time indices were compared. For CXR-RALE, the models were tested in a validation cohort. RESULTS: Of the 308 included patients, 55 (17.9%) died. In multivariable logistic age- and sex-adjusted models for death at 30 days, severity/time indices showed good discrimination ability, higher for imaging than for laboratory measures (AUCCT = 0.92, AUCCXR = 0.90, AUCCRP = 0.88, AUCsO2 = 0.88). AUCCXR was lower in the validation cohort (0.79). The models including severity/time indices performed slightly better than models including measures of disease severity not combined with time and those including the Charlson Comorbidity Index, except for CRP-based models. CONCLUSION: Time from symptom onset to ED admission is a strong prognostic factor and provides added value to the interpretation of imaging and laboratory findings at ED presentation.

Postmarketing active surveillance of myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines in persons aged 12 to 39 years in Italy: A multi-database, self-controlled case series study.

BACKGROUND: Myocarditis and pericarditis following the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines administration have been reported, but their frequency is still uncertain in the younger population. This study investigated the association between Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) mRNA vaccines, BNT162b2, and mRNA-1273 and myocarditis/pericarditis in the population of vaccinated persons aged 12 to 39 years in Italy. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a self-controlled case series study (SCCS) using national data on COVID-19 vaccination linked to emergency care/hospital discharge databases. The outcome was the first diagnosis of myocarditis/pericarditis between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021. Exposure risk period (0 to 21 days from the vaccination day, subdivided in 3 equal intervals) for first and second dose was compared with baseline period. The SCCS model, adapted to event-dependent exposures, was fitted using unbiased estimating equations to estimate relative incidences (RIs) and excess of cases (EC) per 100,000 vaccinated by dose, age, sex, and vaccine product. Calendar period was included as time-varying confounder in the model. During the study period 2,861,809 persons aged 12 to 39 years received mRNA vaccines (2,405,759 BNT162b2; 456,050 mRNA-1273); 441 participants developed myocarditis/pericarditis (346 BNT162b2; 95 mRNA-1273). Within the 21-day risk interval, 114 myocarditis/pericarditis events occurred, the RI was 1.99 (1.30 to 3.05) after second dose of BNT162b2 and 2.22 (1.00 to 4.91) and 2.63 (1.21 to 5.71) after first and second dose of mRNA-1273. During the [0 to 7) days risk period, an increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis was observed after first dose of mRNA-1273, with RI of 6.55 (2.73 to 15.72), and after second dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273, with RIs of 3.39 (2.02 to 5.68) and 7.59 (3.26 to 17.65). The number of EC for second dose of mRNA-1273 was 5.5 per 100,000 vaccinated (3.0 to 7.9). The highest risk was observed in males, at [0 to 7) days after first and second dose of mRNA-1273 with RI of 12.28 (4.09 to 36.83) and RI of 11.91 (3.88 to 36.53); the number of EC after the second dose of mRNA-1273 was 8.8 (4.9 to 12.9). Among those aged 12 to 17 years, the RI was of 5.74 (1.52 to 21.72) after second dose of BNT162b2; for this age group, the number of events was insufficient for estimating RIs after mRNA-1273. Among those aged 18 to 29 years, the RIs were 7.58 (2.62 to 21.94) after first dose of mRNA-1273 and 4.02 (1.81 to 8.91) and 9.58 (3.32 to 27.58) after second dose of BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273; the numbers of EC were 3.4 (1.1 to 6.0) and 8.6 (4.4 to 12.6) after first and second dose of mRNA-1273. The main study limitations were that the outcome was not validated through review of clinical records, and there was an absence of information on the length of hospitalization and, thus, the severity of the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based study of about 3 millions of residents in Italy suggested that mRNA vaccines were associated with myocarditis/pericarditis in the population younger than 40 years. According to our results, increased risk of myocarditis/pericarditis was associated with the second dose of BNT162b2 and both doses of mRNA-1273. The highest risks were observed in males of 12 to 39 years and in males and females 18 to 29 years vaccinated with mRNA-1273. The public health implication of these findings should be considered in the light of the proven mRNA vaccine effectiveness in preventing serious COVID-19 disease and death.

Rehabilitation Interventions for Post-Acute COVID-19 Syndrome: A Systematic Review.

Increasing numbers of individuals suffer from post-acute COVID-19 syndrome (PACS), which manifests with persistent symptoms, the most prevalent being dyspnea, fatigue, and musculoskeletal, cognitive, and/or mental health impairments. This systematic review investigated the effectiveness of rehabilitation interventions for individuals with PACS. We searched the MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Register of Controlled Trials, CINHAL, Scopus, Prospero, and PEDro databases and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) up to November 2021. We screened 516 citations for eligibility, i.e., trials that included individuals with PACS exposed to exercise-based rehabilitation interventions. Five RCTs were included, accounting for 512 participants (aged 49.2-69.4 years, 65% males). Based on the revised Cochrane risk-of-bias tool (RoB 2.0), two RCTs had "low risk of bias", and three were in the "some concerns" category. Three RCTs compared experimental rehabilitation interventions with no or minimal rehabilitation, while two compared two active rehabilitation interventions. Rehabilitation seemed to improve dyspnea, anxiety, and kinesiophobia. Results on pulmonary function were inconsistent, while improvements were detected in muscle strength, walking capacity, sit-to-stand performance, and quality of life. Pending further studies based on qualitatively sound designs, these first findings seem to advocate for rehabilitation interventions to lessen disability due to PACS.

Effectiveness of an mRNA vaccine booster dose against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe COVID-19 in persons aged ≥60 years and other high-risk groups during predominant circulation of the delta variant in Italy, 19 July to 12 December 2021.

BACKGROUND: Consolidated information on the effectiveness of COVID-19 booster vaccination in Europe are scarce. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We assessed the effectiveness of a booster dose of an mRNA vaccine against any SARS-CoV-2 infection (symptomatic or asymptomatic) and severe COVID-19 (hospitalization or death) after over two months from administration among priority target groups (n = 18,524,568) during predominant circulation of the Delta variant in Italy (July-December 2021). RESULTS: Vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infection and, to a lesser extent, against severe COVID-19, among people ≥60 years and other high-risk groups (i.e. healthcare workers, residents in long-term-care facilities, and persons with comorbidities or immunocompromised), peaked in the time-interval 3-13 weeks (VE against infection = 67.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI): 62.5-71.3; VE against severe disease = 89.5%, 95% CI: 86.1-92.0) and then declined, waning 26 weeks after full primary vaccination (VE against infection = 12.2%, 95% CI: -4.7-26.4; VE against severe disease = 65.3%, 95% CI: 50.3-75.8). After 3-10 weeks from the administration of a booster dose, VE against infection and severe disease increased to 76.1% (95% CI: 70.4-80.7) and 93.0% (95% CI: 90.2-95.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These results support the ongoing vaccination campaign in Italy, where the administration of a booster dose four months after completion of primary vaccination is recommended.

Intravenous methylprednisolone pulses in hospitalised patients with severe COVID-19 pneumonia: a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

RATIONALE: Pulse glucocorticoid therapy is used in hyperinflammation related to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We evaluated the efficacy and safety of pulse intravenous methylprednisolone in addition to standard treatment in COVID-19 pneumonia. METHODS: In this multicentre, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, 304 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 pneumonia were randomised to receive 1 g of methylprednisolone intravenously for three consecutive days or placebo in addition to standard dexamethasone. The primary outcome was the duration of patient hospitalisation, calculated as the time interval between randomisation and hospital discharge without the need for supplementary oxygen. The key secondary outcomes were survival free from invasive ventilation with orotracheal intubation and overall survival. RESULTS: Overall, 112 (75.4%) out of 151 patients in the pulse methylprednisolone arm and 111 (75.2%) of 150 in the placebo arm were discharged from hospital without oxygen within 30 days from randomisation. Median time to discharge was similar in both groups (15 days, 95% CI 13.0-17.0 days and 16 days, 95% CI 13.8-18.2 days, respectively; hazard ratio (HR) 0.92, 95% CI 0.71-1.20; p=0.528). No significant differences between pulse methylprednisolone and placebo arms were observed in terms of admission to intensive care unit with orotracheal intubation or death (20.0% versus 16.1%; HR 1.26, 95% CI 0.74-2.16; p=0.176) or overall mortality (10.0% versus 12.2%; HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.42-1.64; p=0.584). Serious adverse events occurred with similar frequency in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Methylprenisolone pulse therapy added to dexamethasone was not of benefit in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.

Effectiveness of mRNA vaccines and waning of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 during predominant circulation of the delta variant in Italy: retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the effectiveness of mRNA vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 at different time after vaccination. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Italy, 27 December 2020 to 7 November 2021. PARTICIPANTS: 33 250 344 people aged ≥16 years who received a first dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccine and did not have a previous diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe covid-19 (admission to hospital or death). Data were divided by weekly time intervals after vaccination. Incidence rate ratios at different time intervals were estimated by multilevel negative binomial models with robust variance estimator. Sex, age group, brand of vaccine, priority risk category, and regional weekly incidence in the general population were included as covariates. Geographic region was included as a random effect. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness was calculated as (1-IRR)×100, where IRR=incidence rate ratio, with the time interval 0-14 days after the first dose of vaccine as the reference. RESULTS: During the epidemic phase when the delta variant was the predominant strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection significantly decreased (P<0.001) from 82% (95% confidence interval 80% to 84%) at 3-4 weeks after the second dose of vaccine to 33% (27% to 39%) at 27-30 weeks after the second dose. In the same time intervals, vaccine effectiveness against severe covid-19 also decreased (P<0.001), although to a lesser extent, from 96% (95% to 97%) to 80% (76% to 83%). High risk people (vaccine effectiveness -6%, -28% to 12%), those aged ≥80 years (11%, -15% to 31%), and those aged 60-79 years (2%, -11% to 14%) did not seem to be protected against infection at 27-30 weeks after the second dose of vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The results support the vaccination campaigns targeting high risk people, those aged ≥60 years, and healthcare workers to receive a booster dose of vaccine six months after the primary vaccination cycle. The results also suggest that timing the booster dose earlier than six months after the primary vaccination cycle and extending the offer of the booster dose to the wider eligible population might be warranted.

Inflammatory burden and persistent CT lung abnormalities in COVID-19 patients.

Inflammatory burden is associated with COVID-19 severity and outcomes. Residual computed tomography (CT) lung abnormalities have been reported after COVID-19. The aim was to evaluate the association between inflammatory burden during COVID-19 and residual lung CT abnormalities collected on follow-up CT scans performed 2-3 and 6-7 months after COVID-19, in severe COVID-19 pneumonia survivors. C-reactive protein (CRP) curves describing inflammatory burden during the clinical course were built, and CRP peaks, velocities of increase, and integrals were calculated. Other putative determinants were age, sex, mechanical ventilation, lowest PaO2/FiO2 ratio, D-dimer peak, and length of hospital stay (LOS). Of the 259 included patients (median age 65 years; 30.5% females), 202 (78%) and 100 (38.6%) had residual, predominantly non-fibrotic, abnormalities at 2-3 and 6-7 months, respectively. In age- and sex-adjusted models, best CRP predictors for residual abnormalities were CRP peak (odds ratio [OR] for one standard deviation [SD] increase = 1.79; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23-2.62) at 2-3 months and CRP integral (OR for one SD increase = 2.24; 95%CI = 1.53-3.28) at 6-7 months. Hence, inflammation is associated with short- and medium-term lung damage in COVID-19. Other severity measures, including mechanical ventilation and LOS, but not D-dimer, were mediators of the relationship between CRP and residual abnormalities.

Effect of High-Titer Convalescent Plasma on Progression to Severe Respiratory Failure or Death in Hospitalized Patients With COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: Convalescent plasma (CP) has been generally unsuccessful in preventing worsening of respiratory failure or death in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of CP plus standard therapy (ST) vs ST alone in preventing worsening respiratory failure or death in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Design, Setting, and Participants: This prospective, open-label, randomized clinical trial enrolled (1:1 ratio) hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia to receive CP plus ST or ST alone between July 15 and December 8, 2020, at 27 clinical sites in Italy. Hospitalized adults with COVID-19 pneumonia and a partial pressure of oxygen-to-fraction of inspired oxygen (Pao2/Fio2) ratio between 350 and 200 mm Hg were eligible. Interventions: Patients in the experimental group received intravenous high-titer CP (≥1:160, by microneutralization test) plus ST. The volume of infused CP was 200 mL given from 1 to a maximum of 3 infusions. Patients in the control group received ST, represented by remdesivir, glucocorticoids, and low-molecular weight heparin, according to the Agenzia Italiana del Farmaco recommendations. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of worsening respiratory failure (Pao2/Fio2 ratio <150 mm Hg) or death within 30 days from randomization. Results: Of the 487 randomized patients (241 to CP plus ST; 246 to ST alone), 312 (64.1%) were men; the median (IQR) age was 64 (54.0-74.0) years. The modified intention-to-treat population included 473 patients. The primary end point occurred in 59 of 231 patients (25.5%) treated with CP and ST and in 67 of 239 patients (28.0%) who received ST (odds ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.59-1.33; P = .54). Adverse events occurred more frequently in the CP group (12 of 241 [5.0%]) compared with the control group (4 of 246 [1.6%]; P = .04). Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia, high-titer anti-SARS-CoV-2 CP did not reduce the progression to severe respiratory failure or death within 30 days. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04716556.

Tocilizumab for patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. The single-arm TOCIVID-19 prospective trial.

BACKGROUND: Tocilizumab blocks pro-inflammatory activity of interleukin-6 (IL-6), involved in pathogenesis of pneumonia the most frequent cause of death in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: A multicenter, single-arm, hypothesis-driven trial was planned, according to a phase 2 design, to study the effect of tocilizumab on lethality rates at 14 and 30 days (co-primary endpoints, a priori expected rates being 20 and 35%, respectively). A further prospective cohort of patients, consecutively enrolled after the first cohort was accomplished, was used as a secondary validation dataset. The two cohorts were evaluated jointly in an exploratory multivariable logistic regression model to assess prognostic variables on survival. RESULTS: In the primary intention-to-treat (ITT) phase 2 population, 180/301 (59.8%) subjects received tocilizumab, and 67 deaths were observed overall. Lethality rates were equal to 18.4% (97.5% CI: 13.6-24.0, P = 0.52) and 22.4% (97.5% CI: 17.2-28.3, P < 0.001) at 14 and 30 days, respectively. Lethality rates were lower in the validation dataset, that included 920 patients. No signal of specific drug toxicity was reported. In the exploratory multivariable logistic regression analysis, older age and lower PaO2/FiO2 ratio negatively affected survival, while the concurrent use of steroids was associated with greater survival. A statistically significant interaction was found between tocilizumab and respiratory support, suggesting that tocilizumab might be more effective in patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: Tocilizumab reduced lethality rate at 30 days compared with null hypothesis, without significant toxicity. Possibly, this effect could be limited to patients not requiring mechanical respiratory support at baseline. Registration EudraCT (2020-001110-38); clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04317092).

Risk of coronavirus disease 2019 hospitalization and mortality in rheumatic patients treated with hydroxychloroquine or other conventional disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs in Italy.

OBJECTIVES: To ascertain if the use of hydroxychloroquine(HCQ)/cloroquine(CLQ) and other conventional DMARDs (cDMARDs) and rheumatic diseases per se may be associated with COVID-19-related risk of hospitalization and mortality. METHODS: This case-control study nested within a cohort of cDMARD users was conducted in the Lombardy, Veneto, Tuscany and Lazio regions and Reggio Emilia province. Claims databases were linked to COVID-19 surveillance registries. The risk of COVID-19-related outcomes was estimated using a multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis comparing HCQ/CLQ vs MTX, vs other cDMARDs and vs non-use of these drugs. The presence of rheumatic diseases vs their absence in a non-nested population was investigated. RESULTS: A total of 1275 patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 were matched to 12 734 controls. Compared with recent use of MTX, no association between HCQ/CLQ monotherapy and COVID-19 hospitalization [odds ratio (OR) 0.83 (95% CI 0.69, 1.00)] or mortality [OR 1.19 (95% CI 0.85, 1.67)] was observed. A lower risk was found when comparing HCQ/CLQ use with the concomitant use of other cDMARDs and glucocorticoids. HCQ/CLQ was not associated with COVID-19 hospitalization as compared with non-use. An increased risk for recent use of either MTX monotherapy [OR 1.19 (95% CI 1.05, 1.34)] or other cDMARDs [OR 1.21 (95% CI 1.08, 1.36)] vs non-use was found. Rheumatic diseases were not associated with COVID-19-related outcomes. CONCLUSION: HCQ/CLQ use in rheumatic patients was not associated with a protective effect against COVID-19-related outcomes. The use of other cDMARDs was associated with an increased risk when compared with non-use and, if concomitantly used with glucocorticoids, also vs HCQ/CLQ, probably due to immunosuppressive action.

Large-Scale Postmarketing Surveillance of Biological Drugs for Immune-Mediated Inflammatory Diseases Through an Italian Distributed Multi-Database Healthcare Network: The VALORE Project.

BACKGROUND: Biological drugs have improved the management of immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) despite being associated with important safety issues such as immunogenicity, infections, and malignancies in real-world settings. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to explore the potential of a large Italian multi-database distributed network for use in the postmarketing surveillance of biological drugs, including biosimilars, in patients with IMID. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted using 13 Italian regional claims databases during 2010-2019. A tailor-made R-based tool developed for distributed analysis of claims data using a study-specific common data model was customized for this study. We measured the yearly prevalence of biological drug users and the frequency of switches between originator and biosimilars for infliximab, etanercept, and adalimumab separately and stratified them by calendar year and region. We then calculated the cumulative number of users and person-years (PYs) of exposure to individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs. For a number of safety outcomes (e.g., severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 [SARS-COV-2] infection), we conducted a sample power calculation to estimate the PYs of exposure required to investigate their association with individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs, considering different strengths of association. RESULTS: From a total underlying population of almost 50 million inhabitants from 13 Italian regions, we identified 143,602 (0.3%) biological drug users, with a cumulative exposure of 507,745 PYs during the entire follow-up. The mean age ± standard deviation of biological drug users was 49.3 ± 16.3, with a female-to-male ratio of 1.2. The age-adjusted yearly prevalence of biological drug users increased threefold from 0.7 per 1000 in 2010 to 2.1 per 1000 in 2019. Overall, we identified 40,996 users of biosimilars of tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α inhibitors (i.e., etanercept, adalimumab, and infliximab) in the years 2015-2019. Of these, 46% (N = 18,845) switched at any time between originator and biosimilars or vice versa. To investigate a moderate association (incidence rate ratio 2) between biological drugs approved for IMIDs and safety events of interest, such as optic neuritis (lowest background incidence rate 10.4/100,000 PYs) or severe infection (highest background incidence rate 4312/100,000 PYs), a total of 43,311 PYs and 104 PYs of exposure to individual biological drugs, respectively, would be required. As such, using this network, of 15 individual biological drugs approved for IMIDs, the association with those adverse events could be investigated for four (27%) and 14 (93%), respectively. CONCLUSION: The VALORE project multi-database network has access to data on more than 140,000 biological drug users (and > 0.5 million PYs) from 13 Italian regions during the years 2010-2019, which will be further expanded with the inclusion of data from other regions and more recent calendar years. Overall, the cumulated amount of person-time of exposure to biological drugs approved for IMIDs provides enough statistical power to investigate weak/moderate associations of almost all individual compounds and the most relevant safety outcomes. Moreover, this network may offer the opportunity to investigate the interchangeability of originator and biosimilars of several TNFα inhibitors in different therapeutic areas in real-world settings.

Association of Influenza Vaccination and Prognosis in Patients Testing Positive to SARS-CoV-2 Swab Test: A Large-Scale Italian Multi-Database Cohort Study.

To investigate the association of the 2019-2020 influenza vaccine with prognosis of patients positive for SARS-CoV-2A, a large multi-database cohort study was conducted in four Italian regions (i.e., Lazio, Lombardy, Veneto, and Tuscany) and the Reggio Emilia province (Emilia-Romagna). More than 21 million adults were residing in the study area (42% of the population). We included 115,945 COVID-19 cases diagnosed during the first wave of the pandemic (February-May, 2020); 34.6% of these had been vaccinated against influenza. Three outcomes were considered: hospitalization, death, and intensive care unit (ICU) admission/death. The adjusted relative risk (RR) of being hospitalized in the vaccinated group when compared with the non-vaccinated group was 0.87 (95% CI: 0.86-0.88). This reduction in risk was not confirmed for death (RR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.06), or for the combined outcome of ICU admission or death. In conclusion, our study, conducted on the vast majority of the population during the first wave of the pandemic in Italy, showed a 13% statistically significant reduction in the risk of hospitalization in some geographical areas and in the younger population. No impact of seasonal influenza vaccination on COVID-19 prognosis in terms of death and death or ICU admission was estimated.

Risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent hospital admission and death at different time intervals since first dose of COVID-19 vaccine administration, Italy, 27 December 2020 to mid-April 2021.

To assess the real-world impact of vaccines on COVID-19 related outcomes, we analysed data from over 7 million recipients of at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose in Italy. Taking 0-14 days post-first dose as reference, the SARS-CoV-2 infection risk subsequently decreased, reaching a reduction by 78% (incidence rate ratios (IRR): 0.22; 95% CI: 0.21-0.24) 43-49 days post-first dose. Similarly, hospitalisation and death risks decreased, with 89% (IRR: 0.11; 95% CI: 0.09-0.15) and 93% (IRR: 0.07; 95% CI: 0.04-0.11) reductions 36-42 days post-first dose. Our results support ongoing vaccination campaigns.

The impact of chest CT body composition parameters on clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients.

We assessed the impact of chest CT body composition parameters on outcomes and disease severity at hospital presentation of COVID-19 patients, focusing also on the possible mediation of body composition in the relationship between age and death in these patients. Chest CT scans performed at hospital presentation by consecutive COVID-19 patients (02/27/2020-03/13/2020) were retrospectively reviewed to obtain pectoralis muscle density and total, visceral, and intermuscular adipose tissue areas (TAT, VAT, IMAT) at the level of T7-T8 vertebrae. Primary outcomes were: hospitalization, mechanical ventilation (MV) and/or death, death alone. Secondary outcomes were: C-reactive protein (CRP), oxygen saturation (SO2), CT disease extension at hospital presentation. The mediation of body composition in the effect of age on death was explored. Of the 318 patients included in the study (median age 65.7 years, females 37.7%), 205 (64.5%) were hospitalized, 68 (21.4%) needed MV, and 58 (18.2%) died. Increased muscle density was a protective factor while increased TAT, VAT, and IMAT were risk factors for hospitalization and MV/death. All these parameters except TAT had borderline effects on death alone. All parameters were associated with SO2 and extension of lung parenchymal involvement at CT; VAT was associated with CRP. Approximately 3% of the effect of age on death was mediated by decreased muscle density. In conclusion, low muscle quality and ectopic fat accumulation were associated with COVID-19 outcomes, VAT was associated with baseline inflammation. Low muscle quality partly mediated the effect of age on mortality.

The value of computed tomography in assessing the risk of death in COVID-19 patients presenting to the emergency room.

OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to develop a multiparametric prognostic model for death in COVID-19 patients and to assess the incremental value of CT disease extension over clinical parameters. METHODS: Consecutive patients who presented to all five of the emergency rooms of the Reggio Emilia province between February 27 and March 23, 2020, for suspected COVID-19, underwent chest CT, and had a positive swab within 10 days were included in this retrospective study. Age, sex, comorbidities, days from symptom onset, and laboratory data were retrieved from institutional information systems. CT disease extension was visually graded as < 20%, 20-39%, 40-59%, or ≥ 60%. The association between clinical and CT variables with death was estimated with univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models; model performance was assessed using k-fold cross-validation for the area under the ROC curve (cvAUC). RESULTS: Of the 866 included patients (median age 59.8, women 39.2%), 93 (10.74%) died. Clinical variables significantly associated with death in multivariable model were age, male sex, HDL cholesterol, dementia, heart failure, vascular diseases, time from symptom onset, neutrophils, LDH, and oxygen saturation level. CT disease extension was also independently associated with death (HR = 7.56, 95% CI = 3.49; 16.38 for ≥ 60% extension). cvAUCs were 0.927 (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% CI = 0.899-0.947) for the clinical model and 0.936 (bootstrap bias-corrected 95% CI = 0.912-0.953) when adding CT extension. CONCLUSIONS: A prognostic model based on clinical variables is highly accurate in predicting death in COVID-19 patients. Adding CT disease extension to the model scarcely improves its accuracy. KEY POINTS: • Early identification of COVID-19 patients at higher risk of disease progression and death is crucial; the role of CT scan in defining prognosis is unclear. • A clinical model based on age, sex, comorbidities, days from symptom onset, and laboratory results was highly accurate in predicting death in COVID-19 patients presenting to the emergency room. • Disease extension assessed with CT was independently associated with death when added to the model but did not produce a valuable increase in accuracy.